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기자도 기사에서 지적했듯이, 이른바 '근사미'로 대표되는 제초제에 이미 글리포세이트가 들어가 한국의 농촌 등에서 널리 쓰이고 있었다. GMO와 일반 작물의 차이는 작물에까지 그걸 뿌리느냐 아니냐 하는 점이다. 

아무튼 기자는 이 기사에서 작물에까지 농약을 뿌림으로 인해서 GMO 농산물이 위험하다는 주장을 전개하려고 한다. 그 증거로 90년대 각종 질병의 증가가 GMO 농산물의 소비가 증가한 것과 맞물려 있다고 하는데... 

이후의 기사에서 어떻게 이를 입증하려고 하는지 흥미롭다.
아직 과학적으로 그 위험성이 입증되지도 않은 사실을 말이다. 음.


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식량안보 문제로 유전자변형 작물의 개발에 열을 올리고 있는 중국 정부.

현재까지는 세계적으로 유전자변형 작물의 위해성에 대한 우려 때문에 인간이 먹기보다는 가축의 사료용으로 쓰는 국가가 대부분이다. 그런데 요즘은 골든라이스를 위시하여 인간이 주식으로 이용하는 작물까지 유전자변형을 통해 신품종을 개발하여 보급하고 있는 추세이다.


중국에서는 자신들의 주식인 유전자변형 벼를 개발하여 열심히 실험 중이라 알고 있는데, 중국발 한 뉴스에서 그시식회가 열렸다는 이야기가 들렸다. 


뭐 그럴 수도 있겠다만 사람들이 어떤 반응을 보일지 궁금하다.

과연 중국 13억 인구의 선택은 어떠할지, 또 쌀 시장을 개방한 한국에 중국의 유전자변형 쌀은 장기적으로 어떠한 영향을 미칠지 주목하지 않을 수 없다.



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오늘자 머니투데이에서는 중국의 유전자변형 작물과 관련하여 좋은 번역기사 두 가지를 실었다.


일단 아래에 걸어놓은 해당 기사를 먼저 읽어 보시길 권한다.

첫번째   두번째



중국의 화북지방은 대표적인 밀 생산지이고, 벼는 주로 강남지역에서 재배한다. 중국인들도 밥을 주식으로 삼지만 밀의 소비량도 무시할 수 없는 수준이다. 옥수수는 당연히 주로 사료용이기에 가축이 소화하기 좋은 형질의 옥수수를 개발하는 것이겠다.




기사에서 지적하듯이 식량문제가 발등에 떨어진 불인 중국 입장에서는 당연히 여기에 몰두할 수밖에 없다.

더구나 다른 산업화된 나라들을 보더라도, 산업화의 기본 바탕은 농업생산성의 발전 -> 농민 인구의 감소와 산업 노동자화 -> 도시의 팽창 이니 경제성장을 위해서도 식량, 곧 농업문제는 중국에게 매우 중요한 일이다.

농업 분야에서 중국이 나아갈 길은 농업 현대화라는 이름으로 행해질 기계화와 함께 종자 개량이라고 할 수 있는데, 과거 녹색혁명의 시기에는 하이브리드 종자가 핵심이었다면 현대는 역시나 유전자변형 종자가 최첨단이다. 

몇 달 전 중국의 한 기업 간부가 미국에서 종자를 훔치다가 산업스파이로 체포되었다는 소식은 그러한 중국의 상황을 잘보여주는 사례라고 생각한다. 



중국 일이니 그냥 강 건너 불구경하듯이 하면 되지 않을까 할 수도 있겠다. 

그러나 한국과 관련하여 우려스러운 점이라면, 중국의 농업생산성이 엄청나게 발전하여 잉여농산물이 생기면 어떻게 되겠느냐는 것이다. 당연히 가장 가까이 있으며 경제력도 어느 정도 되는 데다가 식량자급률이 바닥을 치고 있는 한국이 좋은 판매대상이 아니겠는가?

물론 그러한 일이 없어야 하겠지만, 이러한 가정도 무시할 수 없는 상황이다.

한국의 식량, 농업정책은 어디로 가는가? 이러한 상황에 대처할 만한 능력을 갖추고 있는지 자문하지 않을 수 없다.

이러한 상황까지도 염두에 두면서 정책을 입안하고 그러는지는 가서 보지 못하여 잘 모르겠다.




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ISAAA-Infographics_Benefits.pdf


ISAAA-Infographics_Benefits.pdf
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오오오옷! 몇 달 전 캘리포니아 지역 오렌지 농장에 세균성 녹병이 돌면서 그를 해결하기 위해 유전자변형이 필요하단 뉴욕타임즈의 기사가 있었는데, 다른 해결책을 제시하는 기사가 나왔다.


요지는 세균성 녹병을 옮기는 것이 나무이 같은 벌레인데 그걸 잡아먹는 기생말벌 등을 이용해 녹병이 번지는 걸 막는다는 것. 일종의 천적농법이다.


너무나 흥미롭지 않은가. 역시 농사의 세계는 무궁무진하구나.





세상에나, 찾아보니 뉴욕타임즈의 관련 기사는 몇 달이 아니라 거의 1년 전 기사였다.

나의 뇌는 시간의 흐름도 잊고 멈추어 있었던 것이냐?





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몬산토의 부사장 Robert Fraley가 최근 기후변화의 영향에 대처하기 위해 GMO 종자를 제공하여 세계식량상의 수상자 가운데 한 명이 되고 몇 주 뒤, 몬산토는 자신의 유전자변형 "기후 대비" 종자의 판매가 급락하고 이윤이 감소했기 때문에 이번 분기에 2억6400만 달러의 손실을 봤다고 자체 보고했다. 그리고 Fraley가 상을 받은 이후, GMO 옥수수의 생산이 몬산토의 잠재적 주요 시장의 하나인 멕시코에서 공식적으로 금지되었다.

매년 세계식량의 날에 수요되는 세계식량상은 지구에서 기아와 식량불안의 수억 명에게 지속가능하고 영양가 있는 먹을거리를 공급하기 위해 현실성 있는 전략의 인도주의적 중요성을 강조하는 듯하다. 모순적으로, 이 목표를 달성하기 위해 광범위한 대중의 참여를 이끄는 것은 몬산토가 아니라, 농민이 선발하고 많은 지역사회에서 물려온 토종의 다양성이다. 왜 그런가? 그러한 식량 생물다양성은 식량불안과 기후불확실성을 다루는 가장 신중한 "분할 산란" 전략일 것이기 때문이다.

미국에서 소비자는 종자의 다양성과 농민이 선발한 토종 식량작물 및 기타 야생종의 재배를 강하게 요구한 적이 없다. 사람들이 몬산토의 대안을 바란다는 많은 지표 가운데 하나는 150곳 이상의 지역사회에서 관리하는 씨앗도서관이 지난 5년 사이 전국에서 나타나고 있다는 것이다. 지난 25년에 걸쳐, 자발적으로 토종과 농민이 선발한 채소, 과일, 곡식의 종자를 나누는 사람들이 자신들의 씨앗 종류를 점점 늘리고 있다. 약 5천 가지에서 2만 가지 이상으로 늘었다. 가 된다. 같은 기간 씨앗 안내책자와 육묘상, 웹사이트에서 제공하는 GMO와 하이브리드가 아닌 식량작물 품종의 숫자가 약 5천 가지에서 8500가지 이상으로 증가했다.

그럼에도 불구하고, 이러한 시민들의 노력과 소비자의 요구는 기아와 인간의 건강을 향상시키려는 모든 정부와 대부분의 자선단체에게 간과되고 있다. 미국 정부가 폐쇄되기 이전에조차, 식량정의와 경관 탄력성, 생태계 서비스를 위해 종자다양성을 유지하는 일에 대한 연방정부의 지원이 흔들리기 시작했다. 예산 삭감이 미국 농무부의 작물자원 보존 노력을 무력화시켰고, NRCS 식물물질센터에 남아 있는 예산도 언제 잘릴지 모른다. 채소, 과일, 곡물 다양성에 뛰어난 큐레이터들이 연방과 주 정부의기관에서 은퇴했어도 역사적으로 중요한 수집품만 남겨 놓고 그 자리가 공석으로 남아 있다.

만약 워싱턴의 정치인과 관료 들이 6800만 이상의 텃밭농부와 농민, 목장주들이 명확하게 이해하는 다음과 같은 단순한 사실을 인식하지 못하는 것 같다. 종자다양성은 식량안보와 경제적 복지를 보장하기 위해 필요한 돈과 같은 "통화"이다. 그들은 자신의 몸에 들어가는 영양가와 맛, 음식의 질에 관심을 가지고 매년 종자와 모종, 묘목을 구입하는 데 평균 수백 달러를 소비한다. 씨앗이 없으면 우리가 먹는 음식의 대부분은 기르지 못하는 것이 분명한데, 몇몇 전문가들은 "먹을거리 규칙"에 의한 귀결이라 인정한다. 우리의 식료품점과 농민장터에 품종을 유지하기 위한 종자의 다양성 없이, 가장 영양학적으로 위험에 처해 있는 사람들이 건강을 위해 모든 범위의 비타민과 미네랄, 프로바이오틱을 얻기 힘들 것이다.

그러나 정부와 농기업들이 짐작하지 못하고 있음에도 불구하고, 2008년에 시작된 경기침체 이후 다양한 씨앗에 대한 접근성을 회복하려는 소비자의 참여는 아주 기적이나 마찬가지다. 일부는 그것을 "승리의 텃밭 효과"라고 부르는데, 실업자와 불완전 고용 상태의 사람들이 정원이나 지역사회 텃밭에서 자신의 먹을거리를 재배하는 데 이전보다 더 많은 시간을 보내고 있다.  "승리의 텃밭 효과"라고 부른다. 전국 텃밭협회(National Gardening Association)에 의하면, 먹을거리 재배에 참여하는 대중은이 6년 연속 증가하고 있다. 그러나 재정적으로 쪼들리는 텃밭농부들이 그들의 제한된 자원을 토종과 농민이 선발한 채소 씨앗을 구입하는 데 아낌없이 활용하고 있다. 아이오와 데코라의 채종자 나눔(Seed Savers Exchange)은 포장씨앗의 판매가 지난 5년 사이 거의 2배가 되었다고 보고한다. 토종과 야생종 씨앗에 주목하는 또 다른 비영리단체인 투손의 Native Seeds/SEARCH 자신들의 씨앗 판매가 2009년 말 이후 3배가 되었다고 한다. 그리고 미국에서 300~400개 사이의 소규모 종자회사가 소비자들의 지원을 받아 우편주문과 식료품점이나 종묘상에 상품을 진열하고, 인터넷 등으로 씨앗을 제공한다.  

그럼에도 불구하고 미국은 현재 우리의 농경지, 목초지, 숲에 닥치고 있는 기후 관련 재난 때문에 우리의 역사에서 토종과 잡초 제거 종자의 유용성이 가장 부족한 상태에 접근하고 있다. 몇몇 대기업들이 옥수수, 콩, 기타 상품 작물에 집중하는 동안, 이 나라와 다른 곳곳에서 인간과 환경의 중대한 다양성을 위해 활용되는 다양한 종자에 대한 전례없는 수요가 있다.

미국이 공공의 이익을 위해 종자 육묘장과 농장 현지 육종, 작물 선택 활동 등을 관리하기 위한 헌신적인 새로운 지지자들을 모집하고 지원해야 한다는 것이 너무나 명백해졌다. 또한 기후변화에 적응하기 위한 작물 품종의 능력에 대해 평가하려면, 우린 카리스마 있는 조니 애플시드Johnny Appleseed나 그 이상의 참가자들의 노력이 필요할 것이다. 그들은 앞으로 닥칠 재해를 대비하여 다양한 수요에 맞춘 다양한 종자를 수확, 재배, 관찰, 선발, 갈무리할 준비가 되어 있어야 한다. 그리고 그들은 현명한 투자자들이 다양한 투자 포트폴리오에 활용하는 것처럼 보관된 종자의 다양성을 획득하고 유지하는 것을 생각해야 한다. 다양하고 적응된 종자는 말 그대로 우리 식량안보 기반의 토대이다. 그것 없이 나머지는 사상누각이다. 

뉴질랜드 국립도서관




다행스럽게도 용감한 노력이 미국의 종자 "돌봄 능력"을 재구축하고자 시작되고 있다. 부처간의 토종 식물물질 개발프로그램(Native Plant Materials Development Program)의 일부인 성공의 종자(Seeds of Success)로 알려진 공동 노력은 지난 몇 년에 걸쳐 수많은 토종 종자를 수집하기 위해 시카고 식물원에서 수십 명의 젊은이들을 훈련시켰다. 비영리 부문에서는 Native Seeds/SEARCH의 Bill McDorman이 전국에서 6주의 장기 종자학교를 열어, 330명 이상의 텃밭농부와 농민이 훈련을 받고 종자 기업가가 되었다. 

다른 곳에서는 현재 컬럼비아 대학의 대학원생인 Daniel Bowman이 단 한 끼가 아니라 많은 걸 생산하기 위하여 농민장터에서 다양한 씨앗과 모종을 구입하고자 SNAP 혜택을 사용하는 수백의 저소득가구(미국 농무부의 식품영양프로그램의 지원을 받는 자격)를 도왔다. 농업법 논쟁에서 일어난 SNAP 프로그램에 대한 최근의 부당한 비판에 비추어, 국가 재정의 보수당이 재정적으로 쪼들리는 가정에 종자를 함께 제공하는 것이 장기적으로 식량불안을 감소시키는 비용 대비 가장 합리적인 방법 중 하나라는 사실을 인정하지 않은 것은 놀라운 일이다. 그 방법은 빈곤층에게 물고기보다 "물고기 잡는 방법"을 명백하게 알려준다. 오늘날 미국에는 1994년 1775곳과 비교하여 8150곳 이상의 농민장터가 있고, 그와 함께 빈곤층의 영양 수요를 충족시키는 데 도움이 되는 이러한 종자 배분 전략의 잠재성이 컸던 적이 없다.

미국의 주들이 GMO 표시제를 필요로 하든지 멕시코처럼 완전히 GMO를 금지하든지에 관계없이, 유전자변형이든 아니든 단 몇 가지 "묘책" 식물품종에 의한 시장 장악이 약해지고 있는 것부터 수천 가지 종자와 과일로 미국의 농장과 식탁을 다시 다양화하려는 것을 지원하는 일까지 공적 투자를 전환해야 한다는 많은 증거가 있다. 계획된 40가지의 개발, 특허, 단일 GMO 상표권에 100만 달러를 지출하는 대신, 아마 우린 매년 우리의 종자 카탈로그, 육묘장, 과수원, 농장, 목장, 그리고 식탁에 다양성을 더욱 보충하여 많은 대중의 지지를 전용해야 할 것이다. 기후 불확실성의 파괴적인 영향에 대한 증거가 커지고 있는 지금, 우리가 한 바구니에 우리의 모든 종자를 넣을 때가 아니다.

Gary Paul Nabhan 씨는 <Growing Food in a Hotter, Drier Land>의 저자이다. 그는 퍼머컬쳐 디자이너이자 아리조나 파타고니아에 있는 과수원을 운영한다. 또한 지역 먹을거리 운동과 풀뿌리 종자보전의 선구자로 널리 알려져 있다.


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GM opponents say the talks are a thinly veiled attempt to promote biotech farming at the government level in Africa. Photograph: Ian Waldie/Getty Images

Africa is expected to be the next target of GM food companies, as European scientists and policymakers travel to Ethiopia to boost the prospect of growing more of the controversial crops on the continent.

Anne Glover, the chief scientific adviser to the European commission, and other prominent pro-GM researchers and policymakers from European countries including Germany, Hungary, Italy and Sweden will this week meet Ethiopian, Kenyan, Ghanaian and Nigerian farm ministers as well as officials from the African Union.

The British environment secretary, Owen Paterson, who said last year that the UK would be acting immorally if it did not make GM crop technologies available to poor countries, pulled out of the conference in Addis Ababa, organised by the European Academies Science Advisory Council (Easac).

According to an Easac spokeswoman, the meeting is intended to help EU and African scientists collaborate to allow the crops to be grown more easily on the continent. "EU policy on GM crops is massively important for Africa," she said. "A lot of countries are scared to do any research. They fear they will be punished by EU restrictions. They depend on the EU for their exports."

Critics, however, said the meeting was a thinly disguised attempt to promote GM farming at a governmental level, whether or not it was good for local farmers.

"The meeting has the appearance of giving the European stamp of approval on GM crops, even though the majority of EU citizens oppose GM in food," said a spokeswoman for GM Watch, a UK-based NGO.

The talks take place as industry data shows the increase in the planting of GM crops has practically halted in the US and as G8 countries, led by the US and Britain, press African states to liberalise their farming as part of the New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition initiative.

The New Alliance is intended to accelerate African agricultural production, but farmers have widely criticised it as a new form of colonialism.

Olivier de Schutter, the UN special rapporteur on the right to food, has described Africa as the last frontier for large-scale commercial farming. "There's a struggle for land, for investment, for seed systems, and, first and foremost, there's a struggle for political influence," he said.

According to the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (Isaaa), South Africa grows GM food crops, and Burkina Faso and Sudan cotton. Seven other African countries – Cameroon, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria and Uganda – have conducted GM field trials. The first drought-tolerant genetically modified maize is expected to be grown on the continent in 2017, it says.

Annual figures from Isaaa show that US farmers planted 70.1m hectares (173m acres) of GM crops in 2013, less than 1% more than in 2011 and 2012. Latin American and Asian farmers grow more than half of the world's GM crops, mostly for animal feed or cotton production.

The latest figures show that 77% of the world's GM crops are grown in three countries – 40% in the US, 23% in Brazil and 14% in Argentina – with plantings in Europe and Africa negligible, and concern growing worldwide about the emergence of herbicide-resistant "super weeds".


http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/feb/24/gm-crops-european-scientists-africa-promote-biotech?CMP=twt_fd

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Palmer amaranth has taken root as a herbicide-resistant ‘superweed’ in many US cotton fields.



In the pitched debate over genetically modified (GM) foods and crops, it can be hard to see where scientific evidence ends and dogma and speculation begin. In the nearly 20 years since they were first commercialized, GM crop technologies have seen dramatic uptake. Advocates say that they have increased agricultural production by more than US$98 billion and saved an estimated 473 million kilograms of pesticides from being sprayed. But critics question their environmental, social and economic impacts.


Researchers, farmers, activists and GM seed companies all stridently promote their views, but the scientific data are often inconclusive or contradictory. Complicated truths have long been obscured by the fierce rhetoric. “I find it frustrating that the debate has not moved on,” says Dominic Glover, an agricultural socioeconomist at Wageningen University and Research Centre in the Netherlands. “The two sides speak different languages and have different opinions on what evidence and issues matter,” he says.

Here, Nature takes a look at three pressing questions: are GM crops fuelling the rise of herbicide-resistant ‘superweeds’? Are they driving farmers in India to suicide? And are the foreign transgenes in GM crops spreading into other plants? These controversial case studies show how blame shifts, myths are spread and cultural insensitivities can inflame debate.

GM crops have bred superweeds: True

Jay Holder, a farming consultant in Ashburn, Georgia, first noticed Palmer amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri) in a client’s transgenic cotton fields about five years ago. Palmer amaranth is a particular pain for farmers in the southeastern United States, where it outcompetes cotton for moisture, light and soil nutrients and can quickly take over fields.

Since the late 1990s, US farmers had widely adopted GM cotton engineered to tolerate the herbicide glyphosate, which is marketed as Roundup by Monsanto in St Louis, Missouri. The herbicide–crop combination worked spectacularly well — until it didn’t. In 2004, herbicide-resistant amaranth was found in one county in Georgia; by 2011, it had spread to 76. “It got to the point where some farmers were losing half their cotton fields to the weed,” says Holder.

Some scientists and anti-GM groups warned that GM crops, by encouraging liberal use of glyphosate, were spurring the evolution of herbicide resistance in many weeds. Twenty-four glyphosate-resistant weed species have been identified since Roundup-tolerant crops were introduced in 1996. But herbicide resistance is a problem for farmers regardless of whether they plant GM crops. Some 64 weed species are resistant to the herbicide atrazine, for example, and no crops have been genetically modified to withstand it (see ‘The rise of superweeds’).

Still, glyphosate-tolerant plants could be considered victims of their own success. Farmers had historically used multiple herbicides, which slowed the development of resistance. They also controlled weeds through ploughing and tilling — practices that deplete topsoil and release carbon dioxide, but do not encourage resistance. The GM crops allowed growers to rely almost entirely on glyphosate, which is less toxic than many other chemicals and kills a broad range of weeds without ploughing. Farmers planted them year after year without rotating crop types or varying chemicals to deter resistance.





This strategy was supported by claims from Monsanto that glyphosate resistance was unlikely to develop naturally in weeds when the herbicide was used properly. As late as 2004, the company was publicizing a multi-year study suggesting that rotating crops and chemicals does not help to avert resistance. When applied at Monsanto’s recommended doses, glyphosate killed weeds effectively, and “we know that dead weeds will not become resistant”, said Rick Cole, now Monsanto’s technical lead of weed management, in a trade-journal advertisement at the time. The study, published in 2007 (ref. 1), was criticized by scientists for using plots so small that the chances of resistance developing were very low, no matter what the practice.

Glyphosate-resistant weeds have now been found in 18 countries worldwide, with significant impacts in Brazil, Australia, Argentina and Paraguay, says Ian Heap, director of the International Survey of Herbicide Resistant Weeds, based in Corvallis, Oregon. And Monsanto has changed its stance on glyphosate use, now recommending that farmers use a mix of chemical products and ploughing. But the company stops short of acknowledging a role in creating the problem. “Over-confidence in the system combined with economic drivers led to reduced diversity in herbicide use,” Cole tells Nature.

On balance, herbicide-resistant GM crops are less damaging to the environment than conventional crops grown at industrial scale. A study by PG Economics, a consulting firm in Dorchester, UK, found that the introduction of herbicide-tolerant cotton saved 15.5 million kilograms of herbicide between 1996 and 2011, a 6.1% reduction from what would have been used on conventional cotton2. And GM crop technology delivered an 8.9% improvement to the environmental impact quotient — a measure that considers factors such as pesticide toxicity to wildlife — says Graham Brookes, co-director of PG Economics and a co-author of the industry-funded study, which many scientists consider to be among the field’s most extensive and authoritative assessments of environmental impacts.

The question is how much longer those benefits will last. So far, farmers have dealt with the proliferation of resistant weeds by using more glyphosate, supplementing it with other herbicides and ploughing. A study by David Mortensen, a plant ecologist at Pennsylvania State University in University Park, predicts that total herbicide use in the United States will rise from around 1.5 kilograms per hectare in 2013 to more than 3.5 kilograms per hectare in 2025 as a direct result of GM crop use3.

To offer farmers new weed-control strategies, Monsanto and other biotechnology companies, such as Dow AgroSciences, based in Indianapolis, Indiana, are developing new herbicide-resistant crops that work with different chemicals, which they expect to commercialize within a few years.

Mortensen says that the new technologies will lose their effectiveness as well. But abandoning chemical herbicides completely is not a viable solution, says Jonathan Gressel, a weed scientist at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, Israel. Using chemicals to control weeds is still more efficient than ploughing and tilling the soil, and is less environmentally damaging. “When farmers start to use more sustainable farming practices together with mixtures of herbicides they will have fewer problems,” he says.

GM cotton has driven farmers to suicide: False

During an interview in March, Vandana Shiva, an environmental and feminist activist from India, repeated an alarming statistic: “270,000 Indian farmers have committed suicide since Monsanto entered the Indian seed market,” she said. “It’s a genocide.”

The claim, based on an increase in total suicide rates across the country in the late 1990s, has become an oft-repeated story of corporate exploitation since Monsanto began selling GM seed in India in 2002.





Bt cotton, which contains a gene from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis to ward off certain insects, had a rough start. Seeds initially cost five times more than local hybrid varieties, spurring local traders to sell packets containing a mix of Bt and conventional cotton at lower prices. The sham seeds and misinformation about how to use the product resulted in crop and financial losses. This no doubt added strain to rural farmers, who had long been under the pressures of a tight credit system that forced them to borrow from local lenders.

But, says Glover, “it is nonsense to attribute farmer suicides solely to Bt cotton”. Although financial hardship is a driving factor in suicide among Indian farmers, there has been essentially no change in the suicide rate for farmers since the introduction of Bt cotton.

That was shown by researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington DC, who scoured government data, academic articles and media reports about Bt cotton and suicide in India. Their findings, published in 2008 (ref. 4) and updated in 2011 (ref. 5), show that the total number of suicides per year in the Indian population rose from just under 100,000 in 1997 to more than 120,000 in 2007. But the number of suicides among farmers hovered at around 20,000 per year over the same period.

And since its rocky beginnings, Bt cotton has benefited farmers, says Matin Qaim, an agricultural economist at Georg August University in Göttingen, Germany, who has been studying the social and financial impacts of Bt cotton in India for the past 10 years. In a study of 533 cotton-farming households in central and southern India, Qaim found that yields grew by 24% per acre between 2002 and 2008, owing to reduced losses from pest attacks6. Farmers’ profits rose by an average of 50% over the same period, owing mainly to yield gains (see ‘A steady rate of tragedy’). Given the profits, Qaim says, it is not surprising that more than 90% of the cotton now grown in India is transgenic.

Glenn Stone, an environmental anthropologist at Washington University in St Louis, says that the empirical evidence for yield increases with Bt cotton is lacking. He has conducted original field studies7 and analysed the research literature8 on Bt cotton yields in India, and says that most peer-reviewed studies reporting yield increases with Btcotton have focused on short time periods, often in the early years after the technology came online. This, he says, introduced biases: farmers who adopted the technology first tended to be wealthier and more educated, and their farms were already producing higher-than-average yields of conventional cotton. They achieved high yields of Btcotton partly because they lavished the expensive GM seeds with care and attention. The problem now is that there are hardly any conventional cotton farms left in India to compare GM yields and profits against, says Stone. Qaim agrees that many studies showing financial gains focus on short-term impacts, but his study, published in 2012, controlled for these biases and still found continued benefits.

Bt cotton did not cause suicide rates to spike, says Glover, but neither is it the sole reason for the yield improvements. “Blanket conclusions that the technology is a success or failure lack the right level of nuance,” he says. “It’s an evolving story in India, and we have not yet reached a definitive conclusion.”

Transgenes spread to wild crops in Mexico: Unknown

In 2000, some rural farmers in the mountains of Oaxaca, Mexico, wanted to gain organic certification for the maize (corn) they grew and sold in the hope of generating extra income. David Quist, then a microbial ecologist at the University of California, Berkeley, agreed to help in exchange for access to their lands for a research project. But Quist’s genetic analyses uncovered a surprise: the locally produced maize contained a segment of the DNA used to spur expression of transgenes in Monsanto’s glyphosate-tolerant and insect-resistant maize9.

GM crops are not approved for commercial production in Mexico. So the transgenes probably came from GM crops imported from the United States for consumption and planted by local farmers who probably didn’t know that the seeds were transgenic. Quist speculated at the time that the local maize probably cross-bred with these GM varieties, thereby picking up the transgenic DNA.

When the discovery was published in Nature, a media and political circus descended on Oaxaca. Many vilified Monsanto for contaminating maize at its historic origin — a place where the crop was considered sacred. And Quist’s study came under fire for technical deficiencies, including problems with the methods used to detect the transgenes and the authors’ conclusion that transgenes can fragment and scatter throughout the genome10.Nature eventually withdrew support for the paper but stopped short of retracting it. “The evidence available is not sufficient to justify the publication of the original paper,” read an editorial footnote to a critique10 of the research published in 2002.

Since then, few rigorous studies of transgene flow into Mexican maize have been published, owing mainly to a dearth of research funding, and they show mixed results. In 2003–04, Allison Snow, a plant ecologist at Ohio State University in Columbus, sampled 870 plants taken from 125 fields in Oaxaca and found no transgenic sequences in maize seeds11.

But in 2009, a study12 led by Elena Alvarez-Buylla, a molecular ecologist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City, and Alma Piñeyro-Nelson, a plant molecular geneticist now at the University of California, Berkeley, found the same transgenes as Quist in three samples taken from 23 sites in Oaxaca in 2001, and in two samples taken from those sites in 2004. In another study, Alvarez-Buylla and her co-authors found evidence of transgenes in a small percentage of seeds from 1,765 households across Mexico13. Other studies conducted within local communities have found transgenes more consistently, but few have been published14.

Snow and Alvarez-Buylla agree that differences in sampling methods can lead to discrepancies in transgene detection. “We sampled different fields,” says Snow. “They found them but we didn’t.”

The scientific community remains split on whether transgenes have infiltrated maize populations in Mexico, even as the country grapples with whether to approve commercialization of Bt maize.

“It seems inevitable that there will be a movement of transgenes into local maize crops,” says Snow. “There is some proof that it is happening, but it is very difficult to say how common it is or what are the consequences.” Alvarez-Buylla argues that the spread of transgenes will harm the health of Mexican maize and change characteristics, such as a variety’s look and taste, that are important to rural farmers. once the transgenes are present, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to get rid of them, she says. Critics speculate that GM traits that accumulate in the genomes of local maize populations over time could eventually affect plant fitness by using up energy and resources or by disrupting metabolic processes, for example.

Snow says that there is no evidence so far for negative effects. And she expects that if the transgenes now in use drift to other plants, they will have neutral or beneficial effects on plant growth. In 2003, Snow and her colleagues showed that when Bt sunflowers (Helianthus annuus) were bred with their wild counterparts, transgenic offspring still required the same kind of close care as its cultivated parent but were less vulnerable to insects and produced more seeds than non-transgenic plants15. Few similar studies have been conducted, says Snow, because the companies that own the rights to the technology are generally unwilling to let academic researchers perform the experiments.

In Mexico, the story goes beyond potential environmental impacts. Kevin Pixley, a crop scientist and the director of the genetic resources programme at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre in El Batan, Mexico, says that scientists arguing on behalf of GM technologies in the country have missed a crucial point. “Most of the scientific community doesn’t understand the depth of the emotional and cultural affiliation maize has for the Mexican population,” he says.

Tidy stories, in favour of or against GM crops, will always miss the bigger picture, which is nuanced, equivocal and undeniably messy. Transgenic crops will not solve all the agricultural challenges facing the developing or developed world, says Qaim: “It is not a silver bullet.” But vilification is not appropriate either. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

Nature
 
497,
 
24–26
 
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doi:10.1038/497024a

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Greggor Ilagan initially thought a ban on genetically modified organisms was a good idea. 




KONA, Hawaii — From the moment the bill to ban genetically engineered crops on the island of Hawaii was introduced in May 2013, it garnered more vocal support than any the County Council here had ever considered, even the perennially popular bids to decriminalize marijuana.


Public hearings were dominated by recitations of the ills often attributed to genetically modified organisms, or G.M.O.s: cancer in rats, a rise in childhood allergies, out-of-control superweeds, genetic contamination, overuse of pesticides, the disappearance of butterflies and bees.


Like some others on the nine-member Council, Greggor Ilagan was not even sure at the outset of the debate exactly what genetically modified organisms were: living things whose DNA has been altered, often with the addition of a gene from a distant species, to produce a desired trait. But he could see why almost all of his colleagues had been persuaded of the virtue of turning the island into what the bill’s proponents called a “G.M.O.-free oasis.”



Papaya genetically modified to resist a virus became one part of a controversy. 



“You just type ‘G.M.O.’ and everything you see is negative,” he told his staff. Opposing the ban also seemed likely to ruin anyone’s re-election prospects.


Yet doubts nagged at the councilman, who was serving his first two-year term. The island’s papaya farmers said that an engineered variety had saved their fruit from a devastating disease. A study reporting thata diet of G.M.O. corn caused tumors in rats, mentioned often by the ban’s supporters, turned out to have been thoroughly debunked.


And University of Hawaii biologists urged the Council to consider theglobal scientific consensus, which holds that existing genetically engineered crops are no riskier than others, and have provided some tangible benefits.


“Are we going to just ignore them?” Mr. Ilagan wondered.


Urged on by Margaret Wille, the ban’s sponsor, who spoke passionately of the need to “act before it’s too late,” the Council declined to form a task force to look into such questions before its November vote. But Mr. Ilagan, 27, sought answers on his own. In the process, he found himself, like so many public and business leaders worldwide, wrestling with a subject in which popular beliefs often do not reflect scientific evidence.


At stake is how to grow healthful food most efficiently, at a time when a warming world and a growing population make that goal all the more urgent.


Scientists, who have come to rely on liberals in political battles over stem-cell research, climate change and the teaching of evolution, have been dismayed to find themselves at odds with their traditional allies on this issue. Some compare the hostility to G.M.O.s to the rejection of climate-change science, except with liberal opponents instead of conservative ones.


“These are my people, they’re lefties, I’m with them on almost everything,” said Michael Shintaku, a plant pathologist at the University of Hawaii at Hilo, who testified several times against the bill. “It hurts.”


But, supporters of the ban warned, scientists had not always correctly assessed the health and environmental risks of new technology. “Remember DDT?” one proponent demanded.


Ms. Wille’s bill would ban the cultivation of any genetically engineered crop on the island, with the exception of the two already grown there: corn recently planted by an island dairy to feed its cows, and papaya. Field tests to study new G.M.O. crops would also be prohibited. Penalties would be $1,000 per day.


Like three-quarters of the voters on Hawaii Island, known as the Big Island, Mr. Ilagan supported President Obama in the 2012 election. When he took office himself a month later, after six years in the Air National Guard, he planned to focus on squatters, crime prevention and the inauguration of a bus line in his district on the island’s eastern rim.


He had also promised himself that he would take a stance on all topics, never registering a “kanalua” vote — the Hawaiian term for “with reservation.”


But with the G.M.O. bill, he often despaired of assembling the information he needed to definitively decide. Every time he answered one question, it seemed, new ones arose. Popular opinion masqueraded convincingly as science, and the science itself was hard to grasp. People who spoke as experts lacked credentials, and G.M.O. critics discounted those with credentials as being pawns of biotechnology companies.


“It takes so much time to find out what’s true,” he complained.


So many emails arrived in support of the ban that, as a matter of environmental responsibility, the Council clerks suspended the custom of printing them out for each Council member. But Mr. Ilagan had only to consult his inbox to be reminded of the prevailing opinion.


“Do the right thing,” one Chicago woman wrote, “or no one will want to take a toxic tour of your poisoned paradise.”


Distrust on the Left


Margaret Wille, 66, had the island’s best interests at heart when she proposed the ban, Mr. Ilagan knew.


She majored in cultural anthropology at Bennington College in Vermont and practiced public advocacy law in Maine before moving a decade ago to the island, where her brothers once owned a health food store.


And her bill, like much anti-G.M.O. action, was inspired by distrust of the seed-producing biotechnology companies, which had backed a state measure to prevent local governments from regulating their activity.


That bill, which passed the State Senate but stalled in the House, appeared largely aimed at other Hawaiian islands, which were used by companies like Monsanto, Syngenta and Dow as a nursery for seeds. onKauai, for instance, activists had been talking about how to limit the companies’ pesticide use.


The companies had no corporate presence here on the Big Island, which lacks the large parcels of land they preferred. Still, Ms. Wille said at a “March Against Monsanto” rally last spring, if the island allowed farmers to grow genetically modified crops, the companies could gain a foothold. “This represents nothing less than a takeover of our island,” she told the crowd. “There’s a saying, ‘If you control the seed, you control the food; if you control the food, you control the people.’ ”


Ms. Wille, chairwoman of the Council’s Agriculture Committee, warned her colleagues that what mattered was not the amount of food produced, but its quality and the sustainability of how it was grown.


“My focus is on protecting our soil and the farms and properties that are not G.M.O.,” she said, noting also that there was a marketing opportunity for non-G.M.O. products.




Margaret Wille, the sponsor of the ban on G.M.O.’s, spoke of the need to “act before it’s too late.” 




Such sentiments echoed well beyond Hawaii, as Mr. Ilagan’s early research confirmed.


College students, eco-conscious shoppers and talk show celebrities likeOprah Winfrey, Dr. Oz and Bill Maher warned against consuming food made with genetically modified ingredients. Mr. Maher’s audience, in turn, recently hissed at a commentator who defended genetic modification as merely an extension of traditional breeding.


New applications of the technology, so far used mostly on corn, soybeans, cotton, canola and sugar beets to make them more resistant to weeds and pests, have drawn increased scrutiny. A recent Organic Consumers Association bulletin, for instance, pictures the first genetically modified animal to be submitted for regulatory approval (a faster-growing salmon) jumping from a river to attack a bear, with the caption “No Frankenfish!” In a 2013 New York Times poll, three-quarters of Americans surveyed expressed concern about G.M.O.s in their food, with most of those worried about health risks.


As Ms. Wille’s bill was debated here throughout 2013, activists elsewhere collected 354,000 signatures for apetition asserting that G.M.O.s endanger public health. In the Philippines, protesters, citing safety concerns, ripped up a test field of ricegenetically engineered to addressVitamin A deficiency among the world’s poor. A new children’s book turned its heroine into a crusader against genetic modification: “These fruits and vegetables are not natural,” she declares.


And bills were proposed in some 20 states to require “G.M.O.” labels on foods with ingredients made from genetically engineered crops (about three-quarters of processed foods now have such ingredients, mostly corn syrup, corn oil and soy meal and sugar).


The legislation is backed by the fast-growing organic food industry, which sees such labeling as giving it a competitive advantage. It has also become a rallying cry among activists who want to change the industrial food system. Rachel Maddow declared the narrow failure of ballot initiatives to require G.M.O. labeling in California and Washington a “big loss for liberal politics.”


Whole Foods has pledged that by 2018 it will replace some foods containing genetically modified ingredients and label others; signs in Trader Joe’s proclaim, “No G.M.O.s Sold Here.” General Mills announced last week that it would stop using genetically modified ingredients in its Cheerios.


But the groundswell against genetically modified food has rankled many scientists, who argue that opponents of G.M.O.s have distorted the risks associated with them and underplayed the risks of failing to try to use the technology to improve how food is grown. Wading into a debate that has more typically pitted activists against industry, some have argued that opposition from even small pockets of an American elite influences investment in research and the deployment of genetically modified crops, particularly in the developing world, where hunger raises the stakes.


“Just as many on the political right discount the broad scientific consensus that human activities contribute to global warming, many progressive advocacy groups disregard, reject or ignore the decades of scientific studies demonstrating the safety and wide-reaching benefits” of genetically engineered crops, Pamela Ronald, a professor of plant pathology at the University of California, Davis, wrote on the blog of the nonprofit Biology Fortified.


And other scientists, including two Nobel Prize winners, wrote an opinion article for the journal Science last fall titled “Standing Up for G.M.O.s.”


As he traversed the island and the Internet, Mr. Ilagan agreed with constituents that there was good reason to suspect that companies like Monsanto would place profit above public safety. He, too, wished for more healthful food to be grown more sustainably.


But even a national ban on such crops, it seemed to him, would do little to solve the problems of an industrial food system that existed long before their invention. Nor was it likely to diminish the market power of the “Big Ag” companies, which also dominate sales of seeds that are not genetically modified, and the pesticides used on both. The arguments for rejecting them, he concluded, ultimately relied on the premise that they are unsafe.


Making up his mind about that alone would prove difficult enough.



The Rainbow Papaya


The papaya farmers appeared, pacing restlessly, outside Mr. Ilagan’s office shortly after Ms. Wille introduced the proposal for a G.M.O. ban in May.


There were only around 200 of them on an island with a population of about 185,000, but many lived in his district. They wanted to be sure he understood that genetically modified papayas, the only commercially grown G.M.O. fruit in the United States, account for three-quarters of the 30 million pounds harvested annually here.


“They’re treating us like we’re criminals,” said Ross Sibucao, the head of the growers’ association.


Another Council member favored razing every genetically modified papaya tree on the island.


But under Ms. Wille’s bill, the modified papaya, known as the Rainbow, was grandfathered in, as long as farmers registered with the county and paid a $100 annual fee.


“You’re exempted,” Mr. Ilagan reassured Mr. Sibucao.


Even so, Mr. Sibucao replied, the bill would stigmatize any genetically modified food, making the Rainbow harder to sell.


Many of the island’s papaya farmers, descendants of immigrants who came to work on sugar plantations, have links to the Philippines, as does Mr. Ilagan, who immigrated from there as a child. As the plantations faded in the 1980s, some began growing papayas. But after an outbreak of Papaya ringspot virus in the mid-’90s, only the Rainbow, endowed with a gene from the virus itself that effectively gave it immunity, had saved the crop, they told him.


If Mr. Ilagan worried about big biotechnology companies, the farmers told him, the Rainbow should reassure him. Developed primarily by scientists at academic institutions, it was a model for how the technology could benefit small farmers. Its lead developer, the Hawaiian-born Dennis Gonsalves, was, along with others on the team, awarded the 2002 Humboldt Prize for the most significant contribution to United States agriculture in five years.


Japanese as well as American regulators had approved the papaya. And because the virus was spread by insects, which growers had sought to control with pesticide sprays, the Rainbow had reduced the use of chemicals.




The idea of the ban was popular, but not universally so, as pro-G.M.O. T-shirts made clear. 




Mr. Ilagan took their point. “If we as a body pass this,” he said, thinking aloud at the second public hearing in July, “it shows we think all G.M.O.s are wrong.”



Superweeds and Rats


Instructed by the chairman not to applaud, the residents who packed the County Council chamber in Kona on July 3 erupted in frequent silent cheers, signaled by a collective waving of hands and wiggling of fingers.


A few, like Richard Ha, an island farmer who hoped that the diseases afflicting his bananas and tomatoes might be solved with a genetic modification, were there to testify against the ban. Ranchers also were opposed; they wanted the option to grow the genetically modified corn and soybeans for cattle feed that are common elsewhere.


But a vast majority were there in support. Some were members ofG.M.O. Free Hawaii Island, a mix of food activists and entrepreneurs, who argued that the organisms were bad for human health, the island’s ecosystem and eco-conscious business. Others, veterans of the campaign for a partial ban already in place here, reminded the Council of the precedents for Ms. Wille’s bill: In 2008, organic Kona coffee farmers successfully lobbied for a ban on any cultivation of genetically modified coffee. The presence of a G.M.O. crop, they argued, would hurt their reputation and their ability to charge a premium.


At the same time, the county had banned the cultivation of genetically engineered taro, a root vegetable cultivated for centuries in Hawaii.


In the three minutes allotted to each speaker at the July hearing, some told personal tales of all manner of illness, including children’s allergies, cured after going on a “non-G.M.O.” diet. one woman took the microphone “on behalf of Mother Earth and all sentient beings.” Nomi Carmona encouraged Council members to visit the website of her group, Babes Against Biotech, where analyses of Monsanto’s campaign contributions are intermingled with pictures of bikini-clad women.


Many of the most impassioned speakers came from Mr. Ilagan’s district of Puna, known for its anti-establishment spirit. “These chemical companies think they’re going to win,” one woman said. “Hell, no, they’re never going to win here.”


Organic farmers worried that their crops would be contaminated also made an impression on the councilman, though he felt that the actress Roseanne Barr, who owns an organic macadamia nut farm here, could have been kinder to the papaya farmers in the room.


“Everybody here is very giving,” she had told them. “They will bend over backwards to help you burn those papayas and grow something decent.”


More striking to Mr. Ilagan was the warning of Derek Brewer, 29, an Army veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan before coming to Hawaii to help found an eco-hostel. “We don’t fully understandgenetics,” Mr. Brewer said, his dark hair tied back in a ponytail. “Once you change something like this, there is no taking it back.”


What really stuck with Mr. Ilagan were the descriptions of tumorous rats. Reading testimony submitted before the hearing, he had blanched at grotesque pictures of the animals fed Monsanto’s corn, modified with a gene from bacteria to tolerate an herbicide. According to the French researcher who performed the study, they developed more tumors and died earlier than those in the control group.


“Are we all going to get cancer?” Mr. Ilagan wondered.



Sifting Through Claims


The next week, when his legislative assistant alerted him that the rat study encountered near-universal scorn from scientists after its release in autumn 2012, doubt about much of what Mr. Ilagan had heard began to prick at his mind.


“Come to find out, the kind of rats they used would get tumors anyway,” he told his staff. “And the sample size was too small for any conclusive results.”


Sensitive to the accusation that her bill was antiscience, Ms. Wille had circulated material to support it. But in almost every case, Mr. Ilagan and his staff found evidence that seemed to undermine the claims.


A report, in an obscure Russian journal, about hamsters that lost the ability to reproduce after three generations as a result of a diet of genetically modified soybeans had been contradicted by many other studies and deemed bogus by mainstream scientists.


Mr. Ilagan discounted the correlations between the rise in childhood allergies and the consumption of G.M.O.s, cited by Ms. Wille and others, after reading of the common mistake of confusing correlation for causation. (One graph, illustrating the weakness of conclusions based on correlation, charted the lock-step rise in organic food sales and autism diagnoses.)


Butterflies were disappearing, but Mr. Ilagan learned that it was not a toxin produced by modified plants that harmed them, as he had thought. Instead, the herbicide used in conjunction with some genetically modified crops (as well as some that were not) meant themilkweed on which they hatched was no longer found on most Midwestern farms.


He heard many times that there were no independent studies of the safety of genetically modified organisms. But Biofortified, which received no funding from industry, listed more than a hundred such studies, including a 2010 comprehensive review sponsored by the European Union, that found “no scientific evidence associating G.M.O.s with higher risks for the environment or for food and feed safety than conventional plants and organisms.” It echoed similar statements by the World Health Organization, the National Academy of Sciences, the Royal Society of Medicine and the American Association for the Advancement of Science.


A blog post on the website of NPR, a news source Mr. Ilagan trusted, cataloged what it called “Top Five Myths of Genetically Modified Seeds, Busted.” No. 1 was a thing he had long believed: “Seeds from G.M.O.s are sterile.”


One of the more alarming effects of G.M.O.s that Ms. Wille had cited was suicides among farmers in India, purportedly driven into debt by the high cost of patented, genetically modified cotton seeds.


Biotechnology companies, she said, “come in and give it away cheap, and then raise prices.”





Mr. Ilagan with Alberto Belmes, one of the growers of genetically modified papayas whose views helped change Mr. Ilagan’s mind. 



Monsanto’s cotton, engineered with a gene from bacteria to ward off certain insects, had “pushed 270,000 farmers to suicide” since the company started selling it in India in 2002, the activist Vandana Shiva said in a Honolulu speech Ms. Wille attended.


But in Nature, a leading academic journal, Mr. Ilagan found an articlewith the subhead “GM Cotton Has Driven Farmers to Suicide: False.”


According to the Nature article, peer-reviewed research in 2011 found that suicides among farmers were no more numerous after the new seeds were introduced than before. And a 2012 study found that farmers’ profits rose because of reduced losses from pest attacks.


“There’s farmers committing suicide because of the whole debt issue, but it’s not because of the G.M.O. issue,” Mr. Ilagan said he concluded in mid-August.


Still, it was hard not to be spooked by material emailed by constituents and circulated on Facebook: images oftomatoes with syringes stuck in themand of pears and apples stapled together, warnings of children harmedby parents serving genetically modified food. The specter of genetic contamination still haunted him. And his mother, who had always served papaya at home, had stopped because of her new concerns about the Rainbow variety.



Learning From a Researcher


The scientists at the national agriculture research center here were not accustomed to local Council representatives dropping by unannounced.


But one day in August, Mr. Ilagan recalled, when he turned up in search of someone who could answer questions about genetic contamination, he found a molecular biologist willing to help.


“It’s kind of a loaded term,” the councilman remembered the scientist, Jon Suzuki, saying. “What they’re talking about is cross-pollination, which is something that happens all the time within species.”


The councilman knew little about how food was grown. He enlisted in the Air National Guard immediately after high school and abandoned his first semester of community college classes when he decided to run for the Council seat.


Dr. Suzuki gave him a tutorial on plant reproduction, Mr. Ilagan recalled, explaining that with the wind, insects and animals spreading pollen and seeds, cross-pollination can never be entirely avoided.


But, Mr. Ilagan learned, by staggering planting times and ensuring a reasonable distance between crops, it is usually possible to avoid large-scale mingling. Also, plants have different fertilization methods: The Rainbow papaya, for instance, was largely self-fertilizing. If it is planted about 12 feet away from other varieties, the chance of cross-pollination is exceedingly low.


“But what about the papaya contaminating” — Mr. Ilagan recalls correcting himself — “cross-pollinating with a pineapple?”


This was the part he had trouble explaining to himself. Was the virus gene from the papaya also in Ms. Barr’s macadamia nuts and the organic coffee farmer’s beans?


Dr. Suzuki paused.


“With plants of different species — it’s kind of like how you don’t cross a cat with a dog and expect to have offspring,” he said.


“Duh!” exclaimed Mr. Ilagan. “I should have realized that.”


In the following weeks, Mr. Ilagan sometimes called Dr. Suzuki with his question du jour. For instance, do weeds near genetically modified crops turn into “superweeds” because of a rogue gene?


The scientist, he recalled, helped him understand that “superweeds” were weeds that had evolved resistance to a widely used herbicide — most likely faster than they would have if farmers had not used it so much on crops genetically engineered to tolerate it.


Biotechnology firms were already selling seeds that tolerated other, less benign herbicides, Mr. Ilagan learned. But that was a different problem from the specter conjured by a woman at one of the hearings, who said that “G.M.O.s are cross-pollinating with weeds that now can’t be controlled.”


Asked about the danger of moving genes among species where they had not originated, Dr. Suzuki explained that for millenniums, humans had bred crops of the same species to produce desired traits. But with the advent of genetic engineering, it became possible to borrow a feature from elsewhere on the tree of life. An example Mr. Ilagan later learned about was the rice being tested in the Philippines. Modified with genes from bacteria and corn, it can provide Vitamin A, the deficiency of which is a scourge of the world’s poor.


That did not mean genetically engineered food could never cause harm. But the risks of such crops could be reliably tested, and they had so far proved safe. “With scientists, we never say anything is 100 percent certain one way or another,” Dr. Suzuki said. “We weigh conclusions on accumulated knowledge or evidence — but often this is not satisfactory for some.”



Silencing the Scientists


On Oct. 1, Mr. Ilagan voted to block the bill from moving out of committee, shortly after a day of what Ms. Wille and Brenda Ford, another Council member who was a proponent of the ban, had described as expert testimony.




The Rainbow papaya is genetically modified to resist a virus that devastated other papaya varieties on Hawaii.



At the hearing on Sept. 23, he had grown increasingly uneasy as his fellow Council members declined to call several University of Hawaii scientists who had flown from Oahu, instead allotting 45 minutes to Jeffrey Smith, a self-styled expert on G.M.O.s with no scientific credentials.


One University of Hawaii at Manoa biologist, Richard Manshardt, responded to a question from Ms. Ford about the effect on honeybees of corn engineered to resist pests: none, he said, because the protein it produced affected only certain insect groups, and was not toxic to bees.


“I don’t agree with the professor,” Ms. Ford told her colleagues.


Many University of Hawaii scientists had already registered their opposition to the bill, in written and oral testimony and letters in the local papers.


If the ban passed, local farmers could not take advantage of projects underway at the university and elsewhere, they noted, including drought-tolerant crops and higher-yield pineapple plants. Genetic engineering is a precise technique that “itself is not harmful,” the dean of the school’s College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources, Maria Gallo, wrote in one op-ed.


But Ms. Wille had largely dismissed the opinions of university researchers, citing Monsanto contributions to the university. In 2012, she noted, the company made a one-time donation of $600,000 for student scholarships at the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources, an amount that the college said represented about 1 percent of its annual budget that year.


“It is sad that our state has allowed our university departments of agriculture to become largely dependent upon funding grants from the multinational chemical corporations,” Ms. Wille told reporters, suggesting that the university’s professors were largely a “mouthpiece for the G.M.O. biotech industry.” She did, however, rely on the opinion of a specialist in organic agriculture practices at the university, Hector Valenzuela, who supported the bill.


Mr. Smith, known for “Genetic Roulette,” a movie he produced based on his book of the same title that had been shown at one of the island’s “March Against Monsanto” events, appeared at the hearing by Skype from Arizona.


He praised the Council for stepping in where he believes that federal regulatory agencies have failed, and suggested that the Rainbow papaya could harm people because of a protein produced by the viral gene added to it, adding that no human or animal feeding studies had ever been conducted on the fruit.


Mr. Ilagan was genuinely curious to hear the author’s take on his own latest realization: Each genetically modified organism was different, and came with its own set of trade-offs.


“I don’t see a blanket ban,” he told his staff that week. “It seems like it should be a case-by-case thing.”


“Aloha, Mr. Smith,” Mr. Ilagan said when he had his turn. “Or is it Dr. Smith?”


“No, Jeffrey’s fine,” Mr. Smith said over Skype.


“In your world,” Mr. Ilagan asked, “is there any room for any G.M.O.?”


Mr. Smith replied that there was not.


In the afternoon, Dr. Gonsalves, who led the development of the Rainbow papaya, was given time to respond to Mr. Smith’s allegations. He laid to rest a lingering question about papaya safety that had troubled Mr. Ilagan.


He explained that any papaya infected by the ringspot virus contains the protein Mr. Smith had mentioned as potentially dangerous in the genetically modified Rainbow. Moreover, plant viruses do not infect people. “Everyone was eating virus-infected papaya in the 1990s,” Dr. Gonsalves said. “And now you want to do feeding studies?”


With one member absent, only one other Council member joined Mr. Ilagan in opposing the bill. The Council deferred a decision on creating a task force to discuss the implications of banning genetically modified organisms.


Ms. Wille assured her colleagues that, upon the bill’s passage, she would support the formation of such a group. But it was better not to delay, she said: “I want to draw a line in the sand until we can take a closer look.”



Angry Voters


The response to Mr. Ilagan’s vote was swift and unambiguous.


He was mocked on Facebook and pilloried in letters from constituents. “You have been influenced by the contrived arguments from the pro-G.M.O. interests,” one letter read. “Many of my fellow Puna residents will seriously consider more progressive candidates for the next Council term.”


“Greggor, what do you think you’re doing?” his campaign manager, Kareen Haskin, 70, a close family friend, asked him. “The main thing I told people was you would listen to them.”

He told her that though a vocal minority supported the ban, many other constituents knew little about the complex issue. “I have to do what’s right for them, too.”




Farmers outside the County Council chamber listened to a discussion about the ban. 




He told Ms. Haskin what he had learned about health and environmental aspects of genetic engineering. But as he had found often happened in conversations about G.M.O.s, the subject quickly shifted. “We don’t want corporations to own all the seeds,” she said.


Mr. Ilagan was as opposed as Ms. Haskin was to big businesses controlling a market, in part by using patents that prohibit farmers from replanting or selling their seeds. But banning crops because they were made with genetic engineering would not change the patent laws, he told her.


Mr. Ilagan had been alarmed by testimony from farmers who said they could be sued by Monsanto and other patent-holders when patented seeds ended up in their fields by accident. But he found there was no evidence that Monsanto had ever initiated such a lawsuit.


“I’m still trying to voice this out,” he said, “but to me it just seems symbolic. Like doing something that seems good, but not really achieving what you want to achieve.”


Ms. Haskin took his hand. “You have to vote for this bill,” she pleaded. “What about all the pesticides being sprayed on our food?”


The conversation, he noticed, had turned again.



Emotional Testimony


The Council meeting on Oct. 15 started with public testimony that lasted more than seven hours.


Again, Mr. Ilagan found himself touched by the emotion of the crowd. A mother brought her 8-year-old to testify. Mr. Brewer, the eco-hostel owner, was in the audience with his wife, who is deaf, signing so she could follow the debate. Invoking the Hawaiian word for “land,” several speakers — not necessarily of Hawaiian descent — begged for “our aina” to be preserved. “Our island can be the uncontaminated seedbed for the world,” one said.


Those in favor of the bill outnumbered those opposed by more than five to one.


Lukas Kambic, a biology major at the University of Hawaii at Hilo, sought to use his own experience to counter the anecdotes others voiced that night. “My mom ate organic food exclusively and did yoga all the time, and she died of a brain aneurysm,” Mr. Kambic said. “According to the logic of people here, she was killed by organic food and yoga.”


The room was silent.


Knowing that the final vote on the ban was yet to come, Mr. Ilagan voted “no” after the hearing. Then nearly 1,000 people quickly signed a petition demanding that he change his vote at the final hearing, scheduled for Nov. 18. For the first time in his career as councilman, he began to consider voting “kanalua” — yes, with reservation.


In early November, he sought to escape with a friend to a condo in Kona, only to be accosted at the pool by a voter demanding answers.


And on Nov. 14, Mr. Brewer, the veteran who runs an eco-hostel, visited him in his office. They discussed Mr. Brewer’s conviction that cross-pollination by G.M.O.s would do unknown harm to the environment and detract from the island’s image.


“We need all the votes we can get to override” a possible veto by the mayor, Mr. Brewer said. “Do you think you can vote for this bill, Greggor?”


Mr. Ilagan still had questions of his own. one scientist he had spoken to said the built-in pesticide in corn should not worry him, because many plants contain their own natural pesticides. “I still want to track that down,” he told his staff. “What is an example of a natural pesticide?”


Maybe, he thought, he would join the long-promised task force, which would weigh the implications of banning G.M.O.s on the island and report back to the Council.


The final hearing on the bill was not unlike the first. Superweeds were mentioned. Indian suicides. Contamination.


Ms. Wille urged a vote for the ban. “To do otherwise,” she said, “would be to ignore the cries from round the world and on the mainland.”


“Mr. Ilagan?” the Council member leading the meeting asked when it came time for the final vote.


“No,” he replied.


The ban was approved, 6 to 3.


The mayor signed the bill on Dec. 5.


At the Council meeting on Dec. 17, Ms. Wille’s motion to create a committee to study the impact of banning genetically modified organisms on the island was not seconded, and she withdrew it. Stunned, Mr. Ilagan briefly considered making his own motion to form a task force. But he could see he would not have enough support.


It was time to move on. A fast-growing subdivision in his district needed a community park. Last week, Mr. Ilagan turned his focus to drumming up support for the bond issue he would need from the county to plan and design it.





http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/05/us/on-hawaii-a-lonely-quest-for-facts-about-gmos.html?_r=1

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