@農자료창고

몇 년 동안 경고를 들었지만  Richard Njuba 씨는 실제로 우간다의 Bujagali 폭포가 2011년 말 물에 잠기자 어안이 벙벙했다. 3년 동안 그 강의 안내자는 가까이에서 많지는 않지만 나일강 근원의 북쪽으로 10킬로미터에 있는 사납게 떨어지는 폭포를 보려는 사람들을 보트에 태웠다.

11월 초 Njuba 씨는 수위가 상승하는 것을 발견했고, 그 2주 뒤 폭포가 사라졌다고 한다.

저수지를 만들기 위해 Bujagali 폭포를 물에 잠기게 한 것은 세계에서 가장 긴 강의 두 지류의 하나인 우간다의 빅토리아 나일강에 8억 6200만 달러를 들여 250메가와트의 부자갈리 댐을 만드는 마지막 단계였다. 제한된 전력 생산 시험이 건설에 거의 5년이 걸리고 10년 이상 논쟁한 이후인 2월 첫째 주에 시작되었다.

몇 달 안에 최대 전력 생산의 시작을 앞둔 지금도 논쟁은 끝나지 않았다. 한쪽은 수력발전 사업의 성공을 갈망하는 사업단과 투자자들이다. 다른 한쪽은 댐이 생물다양성을 해치고 지역의 관광을 제한하며 세계에서 가장 큰 열대의 호수인 빅토리아호수의 수위를 낮출 것이라는 환경보호론자이다.

(관련 글: Resurgence of Large Dams Threatens Tribal People Worldwide, Report Says)

전력난

그러나 가장 갈망하는 구경꾼은 우간다인이다. 그들의 90% 이상이 전기가 없이 산다.

세계에서 가장 높은 인구성장률을 지닌 우간다는 에너지 수요를 따라잡을 수 없다. 지난해 몇몇 에너지 시설이 폐쇄된 이후 그들의 송전망은 잦은 정전으로 어려움에 처해 있다. 

부자갈리의 250메가와트는 상대적으로 소규모 댐이다; 그것은 나일강 멀리 북쪽에 있는 아스완 댐이 지닌 능력의 1/10이다. 미국에서는 19만 가구에 보낼 만한 전력이지만, 1인당 전력 사용량이 적은 우간다에서는 훨씬 많은 가구에 보낼 것이다. 

(관련 글: "Ethiopia Moves Forward With Massive Nile Dam Project")

부자갈리 댐은 사업단의 Glenn Gaydar 감독에 따르면 우간다의 전력문제를 해결하기 위한 "가장 장기적인 해결책"이다. Gayda 감독은 그 댐의 첫번째 개발자 —AES— 가 물러난 뒤 2005년 댐 건설 입찰을 따낸 Bujagali Energy Limited(BEL)에서 일한다. BEL은 미국의 시더글로벌Sithe Global과 케냐의 Industrial Promotion Services가 공동으로 소유하고 있다. 버지니아 알링턴에 있는 AES와 27개국에서의 사업이 지연되어 위험이 증가하고 잠재적 이익이 줄어들어 2003년 7600만 달러의 투자금이 탕감되었다고 하고 있다. 

그러나 Gaydar 감독은  12곳의 다른 원천에서 —세계은행을 포함하여— 투자로 지원되는 사업이 지역의 에너지 수요를 충족시키기 위한 민간 자본의 수력 사업의 잠재력을 강조할 것이라고 했다. 

(관련 사진: "Preserving Beauty, Providing Hydropower in Scotland")

Frank Muramuzi, the executive director of Uganda's National Association of Professional Environmentalists (NAPE), said the energy gains don't outweigh the environmental costs. He ticked off environmentalists' objections: the flooding of natural animal habitats, the possible disruption of fish migrations, and the forced resettlement of families to create the reservoir.

A 2006 assessment of the project's impact acknowledged all of those issues, but Uganda's top environmental body signed off on the dam anyway.

And BEL did follow up on efforts that AES had started to resettle or compensate the roughly 8,700 people affected by the flooding. The company also worked with local wildlife authorities to rescue animals that would have been trapped in the reservoir. Gaydar said it was part of BEL's "outside-the-fence activities," which also included establishing schools, medical clinics, and a micro-credit fund in affected communities.

"We bent over backwards to be responsive to the community and to the country," he said.

But Muramuzi said he is still concerned that the dam has put one of the country's most important resources—Lake Victoria—at risk. He said that if the dam operates at its potential, it could reduce water levels in Africa's largest lake. He pointed to a 2006 study that showed two smaller dams upstream from Bujagali were partially responsible for a drop in the lake's levels. If Bujagali runs at 250 MW, he said, he suspects it will drain even more.

If that happens "you'll not even get enough water to supply to these urban centers and cities," he said.

Gaydar said that's not going to happen. The dam will operate under internationally agreed upon rules that regulate the amount of water that can be drained from the lake, he said. And in the end, he said Bujagali could actually help relieve the flow of water from the lake, since the dam will add energy to the grid by reusing water already being pulled for the upstream dams.

물과 아프리카

Bujagali is of a piece with much of sub-Saharan Africa, which is dependent on big hydro for its energy, according to Lori Pottinger. Pottinger works on the Africa campaigns for International Rivers, a nonprofit that advocates for the protection of the world's rivers. The organization has  been a vocal opponent of the Bujagali Dam.

In 2010 International Rivers determined that 60 percent of the subcontinent's power comes from dams. That's a problem, Pottinger said, as climate change causes fluctuations in water levels that could either overwhelm dams or render them useless.

But a 2010 World Bank report came to an opposite conclusion, arguing that hydropower can actually strengthen a country's capacity to regulate and store water.

(Related Blog Post: Can Uganda and Ethiopia Be Egypt's 'Water Bankers'?)

Nevertheless, Pottinger said, some of Uganda's neighbors, such as Kenya, are "starting to see climate change as a real risk to [hydropower] projects" and are looking at wind power and other sources to diversify their energy projects.

Still, hydro remains king in Africa. International Rivers put together a map in 2010 showing proposed dams across 76 different rivers on the continent, including two more in Uganda's Nile River basin.

(Related: "Report: Africans Must Adapt to Drought in a Warming World")

Now, with Bujagali Dam set to come fully online, environmentalists are taking a wait-and-see approach. But the impact on Bujagali Falls—which used to serve as the climax for local rafting trips and as a popular tourist attraction—is already clear.

Local companies, with financial support from BEL, are moving quickly to ensure that the loss of the falls does not spell an end to tourism in the region.

Peter Knight owns All Terrain Adventures, which offers quad biking in the area, as well as a café and bar. He started building the business in 2002, knowing that the rapids would one day disappear. Last year he put in a miniature golf course.

"I concede it's a bit of a folly—the old ruined castle," he said of the course.

By the time the falls flooded, he said, he had already invested too much in the location to move. Now he's working out a rebranding strategy, hoping to get the idea of Lake Bujagali to catch on. It could be a place geared toward families and relaxation. It's a place where former falls guides, like Njuba, can take people on slow boat rides in the shadow of the dam.

(Related Photos: "A River People Awaits an Amazon Dam")

This story is part of a special series that explores energy issues. For more, visitThe Great Energy Challenge.