Sunny sensitivities

No-till agriculture is often promoted because it limits erosion, and leaving residues of the crops in fields means that the soil retains more moisture. That reduces evaporation, limiting its cooling effect. But the very hottest days tend to be very sunny and clear, Seneviratne says, so the cooling from increased reflectivity overwhelms any countereffect from reduced evaporation.

“It’s quite surprising how big the effect they estimate is,” says David Lobell, an agricultural ecologist at Stanford University in California. During extreme heat, fluctuations of just a degree or two can be “the difference between annoying and harmful, or harmful and disastrous”, he says. “Every degree matters.”

Lobell notes however that in many places agriculture is concentrated well away from population centers. “The question is, how regional is this effect? If it's just local, how many people live in areas that are going to be affected?.”

The next step for Seneviratne and her colleagues is to determine what scale no-till farming would have to be done at to have an appreciable effect on climate. “You would need to have a fairly large area, because what we found in the simulation is that this is mostly a local effect,” she says.