생태농업 정책이 탄력적인 생산의 최고 희망이다

In 2011, the most recent year for which data are available, 37 percent of the world's population was dependent to some extent on agriculture for their livelihood. The proportion of people dependent on agriculture around the world has fallen by 12 percent in the past 30 years; figures show that in 1980, around half of the global population made their livelihood from agriculture.

 

However, although as a proportion of the overall population farmers are currently a smaller group, they have increased in number. Sophie Wenzlau, a researcher at the Washington DC based Worldwatch Institute said that numbers of those dependent on agriculture have increased from 2.2 billion to 2.6 billion between 1980 and 2011. Over the same period the non-agricultural population has grown 94 percent, from 2.2 billion to 4.4 billion people.

 

Wenzlau, author of a new study on the world's agricultural populations, noted that the distinction between agricultural and non-agricultural population groups is not the same as the rural-urban divide. She said that, although the agricultural population grew worldwide between 1980 and 2011, growth was restricted to Africa, Asia, and Oceania. During this period, the population group shrank in North, Central, and South America, in the Caribbean, and in Europe.

 

As a result, by 2011, Africa and Asia accounted for about 95 percent of the world's agricultural population. In contrast, the agricultural population in the Americas accounted for a little less than 4 percent. This percentage is smaller still in the United States where trends in farming methods mean operations require less manual labour.

 

In Euorpe, a similar pattern has also emerged as, in most European states, a trend has developed for fewer farmers operating larger holdings. As a result, Europe's agricultural population has declined by 66 percent since 1980.

 

Population trends have varied widely for the world's leading agricultural producers; the economically active agricultural populations of China and India grew by 33 and 50 percent, respectively, due to overall population growth, whereas in the US, the population declined by 37 percent. Wenzlau said the shrinking US population is a result of large-scale mechanization, improved crop varieties, fertilizers, pesticides, and federal subsidies, all of which contributed to economies of scale and consolidation in US agriculture.

 

Although the world's agricultural population grew only marginally in recent decades, global agricultural output increased dramatically. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global net agricultural production increased by 112 percent between 1980 and 2011. The world's net per capita production of agricultural goods increased by 35 percent during this period, averting food security crises in many places.

 

However, the Worldwatch researcher pointed out that, though productivity gains have enabled farmers to meet the growing demand for food, the methods used to achieve such gains have come with unintended consequences, including soil degradation, pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, and depleted freshwater supplies. Short-term production gains achieved by overusing chemical pesticides and fertilizers have, according to Wenzlau, reduced the sector's long-term resilience to climate change.

 

On the back of the new research into changing demographics, Wenzlau recommended that government policy and private and third sector investment focus on agroecological solutions in future. These, the Worldwatch researcher said, will provide most benefit for the majority of those reliant on agriculture and will ensure that food production mains resilient, but also productive.

Agroecology is the application of ecological principles to food production and the management of ‘agroecosystems.’ The approach holds that the wider ecosystem or community dependent on an agro-ecosystem must be factored into all decisions on its management. Practitioners seek results in four main areas; productivity, stability, sustainability and equitability, and believe none is more important than any other.

 

Agroecologists use natural sciences to understand physical elements of agroecosystems such as soil properties and plant-insect interactions and social sciences to understand the impacts of farming practices on rural communities, economic constraints to developing new production methods and cultural factors determining farming practices.

 

The approach has gained favour from UN rapporteurs and is a key recommendation of the World Bank-commissioned IAASTD report, compiled by over 400 scientific experts.

 

FAO estimates that the global agricultural population will decline by a further 0.7 percent and that the nonagricultural population will grow by 16 percent by the end of the current decade. The UN organisation also estimates that feeding a population projected to reach 9.1 billion in 2050 will require raising overall food production drastically by 2050.

 

"To address this challenge while promoting resilience to climate change and avoiding environmental degradation, farmers, governments, and the private sector could consider investing in agroecological approaches to farming – such as integrated pest management, no-till farming, cover cropping, and agroforestry," Sophie Wenzlau said.

 

The Worldwatch study author added, "Policies encouraging the conversion of land from biofuels and livestock feed production to food production could also play a role in sustainably increasing the human food supply."

 

Earlier in the month, India became the first country in the world to develop a full agroforestry policy. This branch of agroecology could, according to exponents ad the Worldwatch Institute, massively improve conservation, resilience and food production in almost all global regions.